tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Appleton via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 20:27 CLT → 22:00 ORD
    AA 627 · American · 2h 33m · 61% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:00 ORD → 00:10 ATW +1 day
    AA 3790 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 10m · 74% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 43mCLT 20:27 to ATW 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.