tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Newark via Phoenix: arrives on time 55%

  1. 06:46 SNA → 08:19 PHX
    AA 628 · American · 1h 30m · 88% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:20 PHX → 17:20 EWR
    AA 1997 · American · 5h 00m · 64% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 34mSNA 06:46 to EWR 17:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.