tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Los Angeles via New York: arrives on time 48%

  1. 13:55 MIA → 17:13 JFK
    AA 642 · American · 3h 18m · 71% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:10 JFK → 21:28 LAX
    AA 302 · American · 6h 18m · 76% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 10h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip10h 33mMIA 13:55 to LAX 21:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.