tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Lihue → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 36%

  1. 21:15 LIH → 06:20 PHX
    AA 684 · American · 6h 05m · 93% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:16 PHX → 09:38 SFO +1 day
    AA 4911 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 22m · 39% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip9h 23mLIH 21:15 to SFO 09:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.