Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
New York → Raleigh/Durham via Miami: arrives on time 40%
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17:25 JFK → 20:59 MIAAA 688 · American · 3h 34m · 76% on time, 3.5% cancelled
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48m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:47 MIA → 23:59 RDUAA 1286 · American · 2h 12m · 62% on time, 0.6% cancelled
Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 34mJFK 17:25 to RDU 23:59, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.