tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Memphis via Charlotte: arrives on time 36%

  1. 18:47 ORD → 21:59 CLT
    AA 689 · American · 2h 12m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 CLT → 23:38 MEM
    AA 2392 · American · 1h 49m · 64% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 52mORD 18:47 to MEM 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.