tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Louisville via Charlotte: arrives on time 48%

  1. 18:47 ORD → 21:59 CLT
    AA 689 · American · 2h 12m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:02 CLT → 00:31 SDF +1 day
    AA 671 · American · 1h 30m · 73% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip4h 45mORD 18:47 to SDF 00:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.