tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Columbia via Charlotte: arrives on time 45%

  1. 18:47 ORD → 21:59 CLT
    AA 689 · American · 2h 12m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:55 CLT → 23:58 CAE
    AA 5791 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 03m · 74% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 11mORD 18:47 to CAE 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.