tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Fresno via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 37%

  1. 10:22 SEA → 16:30 DFW
    AA 707 · American · 4h 08m · 79% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:21 DFW → 18:43 FAT
    AA 1223 · American · 3h 22m · 55% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip8h 21mSEA 10:22 to FAT 18:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.