tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Milwaukee → St Louis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 20%

  1. 18:03 MKE → 21:10 PHL
    AA 710 · American · 2h 07m · 43% on time, 11.5% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 PHL → 23:32 STL
    AA 1368 · American · 2h 33m · 77% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection30%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 70% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (11.5% are) × connection made (30%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 29mMKE 18:03 to STL 23:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.