tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Jacksonville via Miami: arrives on time 25%

  1. 18:24 LGA → 21:48 MIA
    AA 716 · American · 3h 24m · 48% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:53 MIA → 00:15 JAX +1 day
    AA 416 · American · 1h 22m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 51mLGA 18:24 to JAX 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.