tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Birmingham via Miami: arrives on time 41%

  1. 18:24 LGA → 21:48 MIA
    AA 716 · American · 3h 24m · 48% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:56 MIA → 23:59 BHM
    AA 3427 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 03m · 85% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 35mLGA 18:24 to BHM 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.