tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via New York: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:22 MIA → 17:29 LGA
    AA 716 · American · 3h 07m · 54% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 LGA → 21:20 XNA
    AA 4554 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 53m · 67% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip7h 57mMIA 14:22 to XNA 21:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.