tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Eugene via Phoenix: arrives on time 80%

  1. 07:25 ORD → 09:09 PHX
    AA 769 · American · 3h 44m · 86% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:21 PHX → 13:06 EUG
    AA 4114 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 45m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip7h 41mORD 07:25 to EUG 13:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.