tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Key West via Charlotte: arrives on time 42%

  1. 13:49 PHL → 15:45 CLT
    AA 793 · American · 1h 56m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:32 CLT → 18:48 EYW
    AA 2533 · American · 2h 16m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 59mPHL 13:49 to EYW 18:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.