tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Dayton via Charlotte: arrives on time 60%

  1. 13:49 PHL → 15:45 CLT
    AA 793 · American · 1h 56m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 4h 44m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:29 CLT → 22:09 DAY
    AA 5174 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 40m · 63% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 239 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 44m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip8h 20mPHL 13:49 to DAY 22:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.