tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Santa Ana via Charlotte: arrives on time 25%

  1. 15:23 DCA → 17:10 CLT
    AA 804 · American · 1h 47m · 48% on time, 13.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 CLT → 20:06 SNA
    AA 358 · American · 5h 06m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (13.8% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 43mDCA 15:23 to SNA 20:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.