tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:07 SAN → 19:54 ORD
    AA 811 · American · 4h 47m · 74% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 ORD → 23:59 DCA
    AA 1187 · American · 2h 04m · 58% on time, 11.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (11.8% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip7h 52mSAN 13:07 to DCA 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.