tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Sarasota/Bradenton via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 40%

  1. 09:07 PHL → 11:45 DFW
    AA 812 · American · 3h 38m · 63% on time, 10.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:14 DFW → 16:47 SRQ
    AA 2704 · American · 2h 32m · 61% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (10.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 39mPHL 09:07 to SRQ 16:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.