tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Traverse City via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 29%

  1. 09:07 PHL → 11:45 DFW
    AA 812 · American · 3h 38m · 63% on time, 10.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:31 DFW → 16:14 TVC
    AA 2870 · American · 2h 42m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (10.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 06mPHL 09:07 to TVC 16:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.