tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → New York via Charlotte: arrives on time 41%

  1. 15:20 DCA → 17:13 CLT
    AA 840 · American · 1h 53m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:02 CLT → 20:06 JFK
    AA 657 · American · 2h 04m · 58% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 46mDCA 15:20 to JFK 20:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.