tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Albuquerque via Phoenix: arrives on time 47%

  1. 18:51 ORD → 20:39 PHX
    AA 866 · American · 3h 45m · 64% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:46 PHX → 23:59 ABQ
    AA 3159 · American · 1h 13m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 08mORD 18:51 to ABQ 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.