tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → El Paso via Phoenix: arrives on time 55%

  1. 18:51 ORD → 20:39 PHX
    AA 866 · American · 3h 45m · 64% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 PHX → 23:59 ELP
    AA 3874 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 14m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip6h 08mORD 18:51 to ELP 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.