tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → St Louis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 41%

  1. 18:12 MIA → 21:10 PHL
    AA 922 · American · 2h 58m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 PHL → 23:32 STL
    AA 1368 · American · 2h 33m · 77% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 20mMIA 18:12 to STL 23:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.