tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Birmingham via Philadelphia: arrives on time 45%

  1. 18:12 MIA → 21:10 PHL
    AA 922 · American · 2h 58m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 PHL → 23:40 BHM
    AA 5402 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 35m · 75% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 28mMIA 18:12 to BHM 23:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.