tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Memphis via New York: arrives on time 24%

  1. 16:25 MIA → 19:29 LGA
    AA 952 · American · 3h 04m · 53% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:17 LGA → 22:11 MEM
    AA 4696 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 54m · 64% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 46mMIA 16:25 to MEM 22:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.