tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → New York via Washington: arrives on time 31%

  1. 14:07 MSY → 17:46 DCA
    AA 967 · American · 2h 39m · 61% on time, 4.9% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 DCA → 20:20 JFK
    AA 4336 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 40m · 76% on time, 16.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (4.9% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (16.3% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 13mMSY 14:07 to JFK 20:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.