tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kahului → Seattle via Honolulu: arrives on time 25%

  1. 08:41 OGG → 09:20 HNL
    AS 1045 · Alaska · 39m · 87% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:10 HNL → 18:59 SEA
    AS 839 · Alaska · 5h 49m · 34% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (34%).
Total trip7h 18mOGG 08:41 to SEA 18:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.