tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Oakland via Kahului: arrives on time 50%

  1. 11:24 HNL → 12:07 OGG
    AS 1086 · Alaska · 43m · 75% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Kahului (OGG) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:02 OGG → 21:00 OAK
    AS 924 · Alaska · 4h 58m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 36mHNL 11:24 to OAK 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.