tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Seattle via Kahului: arrives on time 23%

  1. 11:24 HNL → 12:07 OGG
    AS 1086 · Alaska · 43m · 75% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Kahului (OGG) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:55 OGG → 21:25 SEA
    AS 930 · Alaska · 5h 30m · 59% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip7h 01mHNL 11:24 to SEA 21:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.