tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kahului → San Francisco via Honolulu: arrives on time 27%

  1. 10:52 OGG → 11:34 HNL
    AS 1095 · Alaska · 42m · 77% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:20 HNL → 20:28 SFO
    AS 812 · Alaska · 5h 08m · 66% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip6h 36mOGG 10:52 to SFO 20:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.