tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kailua/Kona → Kahului via Honolulu: arrives on time 41%

  1. 15:53 KOA → 16:55 HNL
    AS 1117 · Alaska · 1h 02m · 78% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:42 HNL → 18:23 OGG
    AS 1176 · Alaska · 41m · 82% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 2h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip2h 30mKOA 15:53 to OGG 18:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.