tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kailua/Kona → Phoenix via Honolulu: arrives on time 87%

  1. 16:33 KOA → 17:20 HNL
    AS 1127 · Alaska · 47m · 85% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 40m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 21:00 HNL → 06:00 PHX +1 day
    AA 692 · American · 6h 00m · 90% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 10h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 40m layover.
Arrives on time87%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip10h 27mKOA 16:33 to PHX 06:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.