tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kahului → San Francisco via Kailua/Kona: arrives on time 50%

  1. 14:03 OGG → 14:39 KOA
    AS 1140 · Alaska · 36m · 72% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Kailua/Kona (KOA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:40 KOA → 23:48 SFO
    AS 404 · Alaska · 5h 08m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 45mOGG 14:03 to SFO 23:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.