tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 57%

  1. 21:20 HNL → 05:59 SEA
    AS 122 · Alaska · 5h 39m · 71% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:00 SEA → 15:29 JFK +1 day
    AS 26 · Alaska · 5h 29m · 86% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 12h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip12h 09mHNL 21:20 to JFK 15:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.