tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → San Francisco via Los Angeles: arrives on time 9%

  1. 15:59 SEA → 18:44 LAX
    AS 1300 · Alaska · 2h 45m · 77% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:34 LAX → 20:57 SFO
    AS 1601 · Alaska · 1h 23m · 15% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time9%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (15%).
Total trip4h 58mSEA 15:59 to SFO 20:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.