tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Austin via Portland: arrives on time 56%

  1. 15:02 SFO → 16:47 PDX
    AS 1302 · Alaska · 1h 45m · 76% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:39 PDX → 23:49 AUS
    AS 1370 · Alaska · 4h 10m · 86% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 47mSFO 15:02 to AUS 23:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.