tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → San Diego via Portland: arrives on time 36%

  1. 15:02 SFO → 16:47 PDX
    AS 1302 · Alaska · 1h 45m · 76% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PDX → 20:18 SAN
    AS 369 · Alaska · 2h 38m · 57% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 16mSFO 15:02 to SAN 20:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.