tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Santa Barbara via Portland: arrives on time 68%

  1. 15:02 SFO → 16:47 PDX
    AS 1302 · Alaska · 1h 45m · 76% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 PDX → 20:04 SBA
    AS 2029 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 16m · 91% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip5h 02mSFO 15:02 to SBA 20:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.