tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Medford via Portland: arrives on time 62%

  1. 15:02 SFO → 16:47 PDX
    AS 1302 · Alaska · 1h 45m · 76% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 PDX → 18:48 MFR
    AS 2163 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 03m · 87% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 3h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip3h 46mSFO 15:02 to MFR 18:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.