tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 75%

  1. 09:00 SFO → 11:15 SEA
    AS 1327 · Alaska · 2h 15m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 29m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:44 SEA → 16:45 PHX
    AS 700 · Alaska · 3h 01m · 81% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 104 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 29m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip7h 45mSFO 09:00 to PHX 16:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.