tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 34%

  1. 09:00 SFO → 11:15 SEA
    AS 1327 · Alaska · 2h 15m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:05 SEA → 13:06 PDX
    AS 2181 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 01m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip4h 06mSFO 09:00 to PDX 13:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.