tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Kailua/Kona via Seattle: arrives on time 51%

  1. 15:50 SFO → 18:00 SEA
    AS 1340 · Alaska · 2h 10m · 69% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:59 SEA → 22:10 KOA
    AS 200 · Alaska · 6h 11m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip9h 20mSFO 15:50 to KOA 22:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.