tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → San Diego via Seattle: arrives on time 40%

  1. 16:25 LAX → 19:11 SEA
    AS 1375 · Alaska · 2h 46m · 68% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:07 SEA → 23:03 SAN
    AS 1398 · Alaska · 2h 56m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 38mLAX 16:25 to SAN 23:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.