tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 52%

  1. 15:16 SAN → 18:14 SEA
    AS 1381 · Alaska · 2h 58m · 57% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:23 SEA → 21:16 SMF
    AS 638 · Alaska · 1h 53m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 00mSAN 15:16 to SMF 21:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.