tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Honolulu via San Francisco: arrives on time 45%

  1. 16:36 SEA → 18:48 SFO
    AS 1385 · Alaska · 2h 12m · 71% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:42 SFO → 22:11 HNL
    AS 843 · Alaska · 5h 29m · 76% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 35mSEA 16:36 to HNL 22:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.