tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Sacramento via San Diego: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:53 SEA → 20:49 SAN
    AS 1388 · Alaska · 2h 56m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:47 SAN → 23:32 SMF
    AS 1621 · Alaska · 1h 45m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 39mSEA 17:53 to SMF 23:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.