tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → New York via San Diego: arrives on time 50%

  1. 10:46 PDX → 13:27 SAN
    AS 1394 · Alaska · 2h 41m · 84% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:15 SAN → 22:56 JFK
    AS 36 · Alaska · 5h 41m · 80% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip9h 10mPDX 10:46 to JFK 22:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.