tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Dulles via Seattle: arrives on time 82%

  1. 06:13 SMF → 08:16 SEA
    AS 1409 · Alaska · 2h 03m · 100% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:13 SEA → 17:11 IAD
    AS 737 · Alaska · 4h 58m · 84% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 58mSMF 06:13 to IAD 17:11, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.