tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Seattle via San Diego: arrives on time 42%

  1. 21:55 HNL → 06:32 SAN
    AS 1412 · Alaska · 5h 37m · 86% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:18 SAN → 10:26 SEA +1 day
    AS 512 · Alaska · 3h 08m · 84% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 9h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip9h 31mHNL 21:55 to SEA 10:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.